Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 37,714
2 North Dakota 37,070
3 Mississippi 35,596
4 Florida 34,395
5 Alabama 34,098
6 South Dakota 33,164
7 Iowa 32,180
8 Tennessee 31,544
9 Arkansas 31,203
10 Arizona 31,152
11 South Carolina 30,858
12 Georgia 29,956
13 Texas 29,039
14 Nevada 28,235
15 Wisconsin 28,190
16 Idaho 27,971
17 Nebraska 27,679
18 Utah 27,392
19 Illinois 25,975
20 Oklahoma 25,649
21 Rhode Island 25,449
22 New York 24,747
23 Missouri 24,521
24 New Jersey 24,416
25 Kansas 23,796
26 Delaware 22,997
27 District of Columbia 22,767
28 North Carolina 22,391
29 Maryland 21,972
30 California 21,856
31 Indiana 20,870
32 Massachusetts 20,371
33 Minnesota 20,325
34 Virginia 18,839
35 Kentucky 18,794
36 Montana 18,415
37 Connecticut 17,304
38 Puerto Rico 17,077
39 New Mexico 16,078
40 Michigan 15,304
41 Alaska 14,981
42 Ohio 14,682
43 Pennsylvania 14,034
44 Colorado 13,963
45 Wyoming 13,760
46 Washington 13,041
47 West Virginia 10,353
48 Hawaii 9,701
49 Oregon 8,959
50 New Hampshire 6,824
51 Maine 4,299
52 Vermont 3,022

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 707
2 South Dakota 524
3 Montana 487
4 Wisconsin 480
5 Idaho 384
6 Utah 324
7 Wyoming 293
8 Nebraska 285
9 Tennessee 284
10 Alaska 277
11 Iowa 256
12 Kansas 252
13 Oklahoma 241
14 Illinois 233
15 Indiana 233
16 Minnesota 221
17 Arkansas 215
18 Rhode Island 209
19 Alabama 181
20 Kentucky 174
21 Nevada 163
22 New Mexico 157
23 Connecticut 155
24 North Carolina 155
25 Florida 152
26 South Carolina 146
27 Mississippi 145
28 Texas 145
29 Colorado 137
30 Louisiana 137
31 Delaware 135
32 Missouri 124
33 Puerto Rico 122
34 West Virginia 119
35 Ohio 118
36 Michigan 114
37 Virginia 113
38 Georgia 104
39 Massachusetts 100
40 Pennsylvania 100
41 Maryland 92
42 Washington 91
43 New Jersey 82
44 Arizona 80
45 California 78
46 District of Columbia 70
47 Oregon 68
48 New York 61
49 Hawaii 48
50 New Hampshire 45
51 Maine 20
52 Vermont 15

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,821
2 New York 1,691
3 Massachusetts 1,397
4 Connecticut 1,271
5 Louisiana 1,221
6 Rhode Island 1,075
7 Mississippi 1,046
8 District of Columbia 902
9 Arizona 792
10 Illinois 732
11 Michigan 726
12 Florida 723
13 South Carolina 694
14 Georgia 685
15 Delaware 676
16 Maryland 663
17 Pennsylvania 660
18 Texas 591
19 Indiana 567
20 Nevada 544
21 Alabama 543
22 Arkansas 533
23 North Dakota 475
24 Iowa 472
25 New Mexico 437
26 Ohio 429
27 California 421
28 Missouri 406
29 Tennessee 405
30 Virginia 395
31 Minnesota 390
32 Colorado 378
33 North Carolina 366
34 New Hampshire 335
35 South Dakota 325
36 Washington 303
37 Kentucky 295
38 Idaho 287
39 Oklahoma 282
40 Nebraska 275
41 Kansas 269
42 Wisconsin 261
43 Puerto Rico 231
44 West Virginia 215
45 Montana 203
46 Utah 163
47 Oregon 143
48 Hawaii 121
49 Maine 106
50 Wyoming 98
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 76

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 9
2 Arkansas 6
3 Florida 5
4 Colorado 3
5 Iowa 3
6 Louisiana 3
7 Delaware 2
8 Kansas 2
9 Massachusetts 2
10 Mississippi 2
11 Montana 2
12 North Carolina 2
13 Oklahoma 2
14 Rhode Island 2
15 Wisconsin 2
16 Georgia 1
17 Hawaii 1
18 Idaho 1
19 Illinois 1
20 Indiana 1
21 Kentucky 1
22 Michigan 1
23 Minnesota 1
24 Nebraska 1
25 Nevada 1
26 New Mexico 1
27 Puerto Rico 1
28 South Carolina 1
29 Tennessee 1
30 Texas 1
31 Utah 1
32 West Virginia 1
33 Wyoming 1
34 Alabama 0
35 Alaska 0
36 Arizona 0
37 California 0
38 Connecticut 0
39 District of Columbia 0
40 Maine 0
41 Maryland 0
42 Missouri 0
43 New Hampshire 0
44 New Jersey 0
45 New York 0
46 Ohio 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Pennsylvania 0
49 South Dakota 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Virginia 0
52 Washington 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 165,080 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 156,413 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 151,896 3 99
Lafayette Florida 148,540 4 99
Lake Tennessee 135,547 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 44,413 226 92
Richland South Carolina 38,979 339 89
York South Carolina 21,290 1329 57
Orange California 18,192 1608 48
Pierce Washington 10,913 2365 24

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,203 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 621 758 75
Davidson Tennessee 464 1075 65
Orange California 422 1175 62
York South Carolina 310 1475 53
Pierce Washington 260 1654 47

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons